Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe described Wisconsin as Senator Clinton’s ideal demographic for a win - blue collar and mostly white. Well, Barack Obama was declared the victor there today, and is likely to win Hawaii, the state where he was raised.  If that prediction is correct - Senator Obama will have won 10 straight contests over rival Hillary Clinton.

The Democratic frontrunner gave his “victory” speech in Houston tonight, in front of some 19,000 Texans. When the senator emerged onto the platform, the crowd greeted him with sustained applause. “You all know how to do it in Texas. Houston, I think we have achieved liftoff here,” he said with a smile.

Before he talked about today’s results, Obama asked each person present to vote early (Texas residents can vote prior to the March 4th primary) and to caucus - since the state has both.

Then, he declared victory. Watch the beginning of Senator Obama’s speech here:

And superstitions beware. For those keeping track, Senator Obama was too busy today to play basketball - an activity he did prior to his wins in Iowa and South Carolina and the draw with Senator Clinton on Super Tuesday.

In Madison, WI last night, Hillary Clinton repeated her argument that likeability shouldn’t matter in a presidential election — telling a cheering audience “we don’t need to have a beer with the next president. We had that president.”

But this time, the admitted lager-lover said she’d be interested in grabbing a pint with the American people as well – though her bar talk might be a bit more heavy than the average pub patron might prefer. “I’d be happy to have a beer too,” she said. “We could talk about what we’re going to do to solve our problems in the future.”

So who would you rather have a beer with, Barack or Hillary?

It may be election day in Wisconsin and Hawaii, but the Clinton campaign is focused on Ohio and Texas. In her one morning event in Cleveland, OH, Sen Clinton didn’t once mention the Badger state or Hawaii, both of which have nominating contests today; and the campaign held a conference call to discuss the state of the race in the March 4th states of OH and TX — and had some strong predictions for the results in the two states.

Texas campaign director Ace Smith claimed the campaign would have a ground operation that Texas hasn’t seen in a long time, saying they’d already signed up 100K volunteers and half of the 8300 precinct captains they’d need for the post-primary caucuses in the state (Texas holds both a primary and a caucus, which is open only to those who voted in the primary and awards 35% of the state’s delegates).

He also predicted that the Clinton campaign would “dominate” those caucuses, and was “ceding nothing,” including the youth vote in the state. Obama has tended to perform best among younger, well educated, more affluent voters. Citing large crowds at her TX events, Smith said they’d be able to translate that early enthusiasm into votes.

And in Ohio, state director Robbie Mook said Sen Clinton and her surrogates have been all over the state already, while Obama has only been to Youngstown. The campaign has offices in all 18 congressional districts, and is emphasizing early and absentee voting to get some concrete results before the polls inevitably tighten.

Despite the bold preview, Communications Director Howard Wolfson said Ohio and Texas would be real battlegrounds, and that the Obama campaign would closely contest both states.

But in another sign of strength, Wolfson said the campaign raised $15 million in the first 15 days of February, enough to keep pace with the Obama fundraising juggernaut.

Wolfson also repeated what he called a “Shermanesque” statement on this Politico story citing one anonymous Clinton source as saying the campaign was planning to go after Obama’s pledged delegates at the convention. “We have not, are not, and will not pursue the pledged delegates of Barack Obama,” he saidd. “I think Senator Obama’s campaign owes you all a clear answer to the question of whether or not they will pursue our pledged delegates.”

The campaign continues to lower expectations in Wisconsin on election day, and to push Obama’s “borrowed” speech in a set of talking points for supporters and surrogates.

“The Obama campaign predicted big victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii. We will continue to work hard for every vote there,” reads a document sent out to donors. “Next up Ohio and Texas where we feel very good.”

And intent on making a second day story out of Obama’s word-for-word adaptation of a 2006 speech by friend and supporter Deval Patrick, the campaign writes “with an economy in real trouble and a government of, by, and for the corporate special interests, America needs a President who will deliver real solutions, not borrowed speeches.”

“Sen. Obama is running on rhetoric. Recently, we learned that Sen. Obama lifted his rhetoric from Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick. Yesterday, Sen. Obama said he doesn’t think lifting rhetoric is a ‘big deal.’ Hillary knows we don’t need more lifted speeches — we need real solutions.”

Read the full talking points below. Halperin has Obama’s daily talking points here.

(more…)

Sen Clinton told a Wisconsin audience over the weekend that she’d been on hunting trips in years past… but when asked about it by reporters would only reveal that she’d once bagged a duck in Arkansas.

In Wausau, WI today, Clinton gave the dirty details of her duck hunting days — revealing that she surprised all her male companions when she shot that banded mallard out of the sky.

Her prowess with a gun led one Wausau resident to ask “As long as you know how to use a gun, would you be willing to show vice president Cheney how to use his?”

She joked that the world should worry about the Vice President once he’s gone. “Once he his out of office the secret service is not around to protect people from him. We better be careful about where he goes hunting. Safety protocol would be useful, don’t you think?”

Check out Hillary’s hunting tale below.

Only in Wisconsin.

A student wearing a Bret Favre jersey and a cheese hat stood up to ask Sen Clinton a question at her event near Green Bay, WI today – only he never quite spit out a question in more than 3 minutes.

At first, Sen Clinton and the crowd were amused. “Oh I love cheeseheads!” she said. “I just got a button which said ‘cheeseheads for Clinton.’ It’s a prized possession now.”

The student said he’d been at Clinton’s rally in Kenosha on Saturday. “I really wanted to ask you a question there, but you didn’t call on me,” he said. “I was just thinking when I got home, how the heck can I get Hillary’s attention?”

“You figured it out,” she said as the crowd laughed.

But as the long seconds piled up and the kid talked about everything from President Clinton and Chelsea’s Wisconsin campaigning to the local officials who were hosting the event, the crowd turned. When he just kept plowing through even after the Senator thanked him for his remarks, the catcalls started.

“Am I taking too long here?” he asked. Their response made it pretty clear what the crowd thought. “I actually do have a question for you, it’s a real simple one,” he said. But still, no question.

“I have these great photos,” he said, holding up a stack of print-outs. The crowd groaned. “I had a catastrophe in Kenosha last night. My camera lost it’s battery. I just want to get one photograph with you, that’s it.”

Senator Clinton promised the student a photograph after the event, and he mercifully took his seat.

Barack Obama defended the power of words against Hillary Clinton’s argument that talk is cheap this week, asking a Democratic gathering in Milwaukee, WI if “I have a dream,” or “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself” were just words. A good argument — one that had already been used, nearly verbatim, but Massachusetts Gov and Obama supporter Deval Patrick in a speech in 2006.

“‘We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,’” said Patrick in response to a similar criticism from his GOP opponent in the Governor’s race that year. “Just words?”

On a conference call, Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson said the incident undercuts a fundamental principle on which the Obama campaign is based. “Sen Obama is running on the strength of his rhetoric and the strength of his promises. And as we have seen in the last couple of days, he’s breaking his promises and his rhetoric isn’t his own,” he said.

Obama’s campaign fired back that Sen Clinton tossed out Obama’s signature “Fired Up and Ready to Go” line at an event in Davenport, IA in January (watch it here), and sent out an article arguing that she’s borrowed other candidates’ rhetoric in the past.

Obama embed Bonney Kapp reports that Obama was unapologetic. “Deval and I do trade ideas all the time. He’s occasionally used lines of mine, and I at a JJ dinner in Wisconsin used some words of his,” he said. “I don’t think that’s really the kind of stuff the workers here are concerned about.”

But he did acknowledge that maybe he should have given his friend and supporter credit, saying “I was on the stump and he had suggested we use these lines. I thought they were good lines. I’m sure I should have. Didn’t this time.”

The latest attack on Barack Obama from his main rival, Hillary Clinton, is that he is all talk - and talk doesn’t necessarily produce results. He may be able to deliver a good speech, but speeches don’t put food on the table. Obama has responded to this latest criticism in recent speeches, but at tonight’s Wisconsin State Democratic Founder’s Day Dinner, he reacted more forcefully and with greater passion than he has to date.

“The most important thing we can do right now is to reengage the American people in the process of governance. To get them excited and interested again in what works and what can work in our government, to make politics cool again and important again and relevant again. Don’t tell me words don’t matter,” he said, voice rising.

To hammer it home, Obama then evoked some of the most memorable lines from our nation’s greatest speeches to make the point that words can, in fact, matter and make a difference. “‘I have a dream!’ Just words. ‘We hold these truths to be self evident that all me are created equal.’ Just words. ‘We have nothing to fear but fear itself.’ Just words. Just speeches,” he said.

“It’s true that speeches don’t solve all problems, but what is also true is if we cannot inspire the country to believe again, then it doesn’t matter how many policies and plans we have, and that is why I am running for president of the United States of America, and that is why we just won 8 elections straight, because the American people want to believe in change again. Don’t tell me words don’t matter!”

It’s unclear if the candidate thinks his words are on par with those above spoken by Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., Abraham Lincoln, and FDR, but yesterday at a rally in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, Obama did agree that his oratory skills are above average.

“It’s true I give a good speech. What can I do? Nothing wrong with that,” he admitted. “But understand the reason why the ability to motivate people and inspire people is important because the problems we face right now are not technical…..The question is who can bring Democrats, Independents, and Republicans into a working majority to bring about change. That’s what I offer that [Senator Clinton] can’t do.”

Barack Obama released a new ad called “Desperate” today to dispel Hillary Clinton’s latest effort to show Wisconsin voters that Barack Obama has something to hide by refusing to debate her before Tuesday’s primary.

Something Wisconsin Governor (and Obama backer) Jim Doyle described as dirty politics. “For her to do this - claiming that Senator Obama somehow isn’t making himself available when he has been all over the state, and as we speak today, she has yet to even be in the state during the week leading up to this primary,” he said on a conference call yesterday**. “Fact is, he’s out here in the state having a one-sided debate right now and the only campaign she has going on in Wisconsin is negative TV ads,” he added later.

“Desperate” is Obama’s second ad set to air in the Badger State to respond to Clinton’s own second ad questioning Obama’s reasons for refusing a debate. The announcer starts by saying there have already been 18 debates with two more scheduled next week.

“Here’s the truth. Obama has a plan to protect Social Security benefits and the current retirement age. Hillary doesn’t. On health care, even Bill Clinton’s Labor Secretary says Obama covers more people than Hillary. And Obama sponsored a bill to end tax breaks for oil companies,” the announcer reads, responding to claims from the previous Clinton ad. “Tired of the same old politics? Vote for change we can believe in,” the ad ends.

In a media availability yesterday, Obama called debates an “exercise” that has become “predicatable.” He explained, “I could make the arguments on behalf of senator Clinton that she would make against me in a debate. We all know them. You guys could too. And I’m sure the same applies to the other side, on the other hand, when we have a chance to talk to voters directly, when we have a chance to give them a sense of where we want to take the country and that’s my priority in these closing weeks.”

**Senator Clinton will make her first trip to Wisconsin this week when she arrives later today to speak at the state Democratic Party’s Founders Day Dinner in Milwaukee, where Senator Obama will also be speaking.

There has been a lot of back and forth between the campaigns (with the press often as intermediaries) on adding more debates to the schedule. After the indecisive Super Tuesday outcome, Clinton accepted four debate invitations. Obama stalled, and after a few days of questions from the press, agreed to two. The candidate maintained that he could better utilize his time by greeting voters because they find the more the candidate campaigns, the better he does.

Not good enough for Clinton - who began running an ad in the state of Wisconsin, scolding Obama for not accepting a debate prior to the state’s contest on February 19th. Obama countered with his own ad, where the narrator reads, “After 18 debates, with two more coming, Hillary says Barack Obama is ducking debates? It’s the same old politics of phony charges and false attacks.”

Today at his Milwaukee media availability, I asked Obama about Clinton’s repeated claims that he is ducking debates. Here’s his response:

Senator Clinton put out yet another ad on debates today:

“Maybe he doesn’t want to explain why his health care plan leaves out 15 million people and Hillary’s covers everyone. Or why he voted to pass billions in Bush giveaways to the oil companies, but Hillary didn’t. Or why he said he might raise the retirement age and cut benefits for Social Security. But Hillary won’t. Why won’t Barack Obama debate these differences? Wisconsin deserves better.”

Expect this argument to continue - at least until the next scheduled debate on Thursday in Austin.