While Hillary Clinton will embrace her West Virginia victory, Barack Obama headed to a state he already won in this Democratic endurance match. The candidate visited Cape Girardeau, Missouri, where he gave a speech on the economy. In his prepared remarks, there was no reference to the Mountain State’s primary and no mention of Hillary Clinton - another sign the campaign is preparing itself for the general election before he has actually secured the nomination.

Today the Obama camp sent out a memo to reporters, where they admitted “there is no question that Senator Clinton is going to win by huge margins in the upcoming primaries in West Virginia today and Kentucky next week.” But the memo went on to say, “With 49 contests behind us and only six to go — including several states where we expect to do well — Barack Obama leads in pledged delegates, contests won, and superdelegates. And for perspective, while 28 pledged delegates are up for grabs this evening, Obama has won the support of 27 superdelegates in the course of just the last week putting him less than 150 total delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination.”

Despite the campaign’s growing confidence in an Obama nomination, in today’s memo they are still trying to assure  some in the Democratic Party who are skittish about Barack Obama’s chances in the general election as he has not been able to win states made up of white, working class voters such as West Virginia. The lengthy memo then debunks what the campaign described as “five myths about Obama’s support.”

1. The race for the nomination has left the Democratic Party divided

2. The primary has hurt Obama with swing voters and Republicans

3. Obama will not get the support of white voters

4. The campaign has hurt Obama’s standing with women voters

5. Obama cannot win working class voters

Read the full memo below.

TO: Interested Parties

FR: The Obama Campaign

RE: West Virginia and Obama’s Strong Position in the Race Ahead

DA: 5/13/08

West Virginia

There is no question that Senator Clinton is going to win by huge margins in the upcoming primaries in West Virginia today and Kentucky next weeks. She has poured resources into both states and she, former President Clinton, and Chelsea Clinton have all campaigned extraordinarily hard there.

The Clinton campaign has already been touting their margins in these states – In fact, Bill Clinton said that Hillary can win West Virginia with 80 percent—and the West Virginia Senate Majority Leader said Clinton needs to win by “80-20 or 90-10.”  And in keeping large margins in perspective, it is worth noting that, while Senator Clinton will win big in West Virginia, Barack Obama won neighboring Virginia by 29 points.

But with 49 contests behind us and only six to go — including several states where we expect to do well — Barack Obama leads in pledged delegates, contests won, and superdelegates. And for perspective, while 28 pledged delegates are up for grabs this evening, Obama has won the support of 27 superdelegates in the course of just the last week putting him less than 150 total delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination.

(more…)

According to the Obama campaign, Barack Obama now has more superdelegates than his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton - “a clear sign that Democrats across the country and throughout the party are ready for a new kind of politics.” In an email sent out to supporters, Campaign Manager David Plouffe shared the news while noting the race is not over (hint, send money).

“Given the long history the Clintons have with the Democratic Party, it’s no surprise Senator Clinton maintained her superdelegate lead for so long,” Plouffe wrote. “But right now it’s clear that the Democratic Party is uniting around Barack’s candidacy.”

Read the email here:

“Big news today: for the first time since this campaign began, Barack Obama has taken the lead among superdelegates.

We’ve won more elected delegates, more states, and more votes than Senator Clinton. But until yesterday we trailed among Governors, Members of Congress, and Democratic Party leaders — the so-called “superdelegates” who have a vote in the nominating process.

As it stands, we have 279 superdelegates who have committed to cast their convention votes for us. That includes 21 since last Tuesday’s elections, and 3 who switched their support from Senator Clinton.

We have just 152 delegates to go before Barack Obama clinches the nomination.

But Senator Clinton intends to compete vigorously in the remaining contests; at the same time we face increasing attacks from Senator McCain and the Republican attack machine.

Barack needs your support to close out this nomination and start building for the general election.

You got us where we are today. Please help by making another donation of $100 now.

Given the long history the Clintons have with the Democratic Party, it’s no surprise Senator Clinton maintained her superdelegate lead for so long.

But right now it’s clear that the Democratic Party is uniting around Barack’s candidacy.”

(more…)

The Obama campaign today announced Barack Obama would head to Michigan tomorrow - a move that only a frontrunner could make on the night of the West Virginia primary. While Hillary Clinton will likely celebrate her victory in the Mountaineer State, Barack Obama is traveling to Missouri and Michigan, states that held their primaries on February 5th and January 15th respectively. Obama will spend Wednesday on the stump in Michigan.

Of course Obama won Missouri and did not contend in Michigan as no delegates were at stake due to a punishment handed down by the DNC. Hillary Clinton carried the illegitimate primary, whose results have not factored into the heated race, and remains one of the reasons why she has yet to concede.

After Tuesday there will be five contests remaining in the Democratic nomination. The Obama campaign vows to campaign in each of the remaining states, but noted in a statement today, “Our schedule reflects the fact that we are still fighting for votes and delegates in the remaining contests but also that we are going to places that are going to be competitive in the fall. John McCain has gone unchallenged for far too long and we’re going to make sure that voters in competitive states know the choice in this election between changing Washington and the third term of George Bush’s failed policies that McCain is offering.”

And while Barack Obama himself has said this nomination is not over, his campaign is beginning to morph into general election mode. “Obviously we also don’t want to wake up on the morning of June 4th or June 10th or whenever this is going to end and not be prepared, so we’re going to do the things we can in our off hours,” Campaign Manager David Plouffe told reporters on a conference call last week. At the time it wasn’t clear “off hours” would mean prior to the campaign sealing the Democratic deal.

One of the “silver linings” to this long, drawn out campaign, Plouffe says, is that they have an organization in most states which will better ready Democrats to take McCain on in the general election. But Obama did not campaign in Florida or Michigan. “I think Florida is one state where we’ve probably suffered the most from lack of campaign activity compared to the rest of the country,” Plouffe observed on last week’s conference call. Which may be why Obama is scheduled to campaign in the Sunshine State on May 21st and 22nd – just one day after the candidate is expected to have accumulated the majority of delegates at stake in the nomination.

On Obama’s travel plans, a spokesman for the RNC responded today by noting, “Barack Obama can travel wherever he wants, but it won’t make his calls for higher taxes, restricted gun rights, and proposed meetings with state sponsors of terrorism any more appealing. Wherever Obama takes his flawed message, voters will learn more about the weak leadership he has demonstrated on important issues confronting the nation.”

Jacketless and surrounded by staffers, Secret Service, and press, Obama stopped by the home of Andy and Melissa Evers in Union Mills, IN, yesterday – the second time the candidate has made a media event out of visiting an Indiana voter’s home.

A farming family, the Evers welcomed the motley crew onto their property while Obama’s multi-bus motorcaded idled on the sleepy country road in front of their farm. About twenty of the Evers’ neighbors and friends came to mingle with the candidate and to discuss issues like the economy and gas prices while the candidate sat at a picnic table in the backyard - press surrounded the otherwise normal conversation.

After about 25 minutes, Obama announced it was time to leave. One of the neighbors wondered if Obama had the time to shoot some hoops with the Evers’ son, 14-year-old Aaron Villicana. Rolling up his sleeves and heading over to the basketball hoop in the driveway, the always competitive candidate said, “We’ll play a quick game of Pig.”

The game – traditionally referred to as Horse – is played by each participant taking a shot. If the shot is made, the challenger attempts to make the same shot. If that person misses, he is awarded a letter. The first one to spell out the name of the animal, in this case Pig, is the loser.

Obama let Aaron shoot first, noting the kid’s “home court advantage.” Aaron missed. Obama took the ball and said, “Let’s see what I got.” Obama missed. “As an older guy, this dimming light is a disadvantage,” he explained as dusk approached.

Aaron held his own against Obama, who just this week played with the UNC Tarheels - the very same team that was in the NCAA playoffs last month. The score was P-I to P- I and remained such for some time as both Aaron and Obama missed shot after shot after shot. Obama joked, “My shot is broke! We are in Indiana – we’re supposed to be making these.” Indiana is, after all, the Hoosier State.

“We want to make it close and add to the drama,” he said with a smile. Of course everybody observing immediately likened the pickup game to the race for the Democratic nomination. With no end in sight it began drizzling. An audio technician from one of the television networks holding a boom mic finally said what everyone watching was thinking. “Come on, Senator, put it to bed.”

“You know, he’s tough,” Obama replied. “He keeps on coming back. He’s like Hillary!” The spectators all laughed and Obama took another shot. Swish. Aaron missed the shot and the victory was Obama’s. Read into this if you want - or don’t.

In a pen and pad briefing at a Chicago hotel, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe talked to assembled reporters to discuss the state of the race.

Acknowledging Clinton’s victories, he said she “had a good night last night in terms of the raw vote and, you know, obviously breathed some life into her campaign, but the fact remains that if you look at the entire contests so far, which is just about 40 states, almost 80% of the states have participated right now, Barack Obama has shown real breadth of support.”

To win the nomination, the Obama campaign is not relying on “symbolic wins.” Rather it’s about amassing delegates. And in that playbook, Plouffe said Hillary Clinton is not gaining ground. “If you look at the day on total, she’s gonna net anywhere from four to probably ten delegates,” he said, noting that number is smaller than what they netted when they won Idaho.

“Last night was a big window that closed for them because they probably needed to net more like 75 or 80 delegates to be in a position to suggest that somehow they could retake the pledged delegate lead,” he told reporters. “So even the most generous analysis of how these races might go coming down the pike, they’re never going to even get close to erasing the pledged delegate lead. The fairest look at it probably means we’re going to maintain a pledged delegate lead of over 100 by the end of this,” he continued.

Plouffe stressed they are looking at this as a 50 state race while the Clinton camp is picking and choosing states, ones the Clinton camp refers to as the “big states.” Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is already downplaying Pennsylvania, where Clinton likely has the advantage. “The winner of Pennsylvania is likely to only net, you know, well could net just a couple or four if it’s very close, but nine to ten delegates at most.”

They will campaign hard in Pennsylvania, but they will also organize in states like North Carolina, Indiana, and South Dakota. “They’re not going to win the rest of the contests,” he noted, saying they are preparing for a “long haul” campaign against a fierce candidate, whom Plouffe referred to as “the most secretive politician in America today” for her lack of disclosure.

He also described her campaign strategy as one that “is simply going to be to try to run a scorched earth campaign and somehow, someway convince the superdelegates, the party insiders and leaders, that they should overturn the voters’ decision, which would be catastrophic for the party, though, in terms of heading into the general election.”

Plouffe urged reporters in the room to press the Clinton campaign on this issue. “The question for them is, is there a pledged delegate deficit that you think is low enough that the superdelegates will be comfortable overturning essentially the will of the voters. And that’s really the question for them as we stand here today,” he observed.

In terms of money, Plouffe was coy. “We’ll have our numbers out soon. Candidly, we’re in the middle of these big contests and we had a lot of money to process and wanted to make sure we had the most accurate count of donors and average contributions. We’ve had a very good last 24 hours,” he said. “Just like after New Hampshire, when the media says, ‘well, it was a good night for Clinton,’ our people respond well.”

done

Dallas, TX — It might have seemed nearly unimaginable only six months ago but Sen. John McCain officially won the GOP nomination Tuesday night after triumphant victories in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont.

“Now, we begin the most important part of our campaign: to make a respectful, determined and convincing case to the American people that our campaign and my election as President, given the alternatives presented by our friends in the other party, are in the best interests of the country we love,” McCain said before about 500 supporters at a victory party in Dallas. “The contest begins tonight. It will have its ups and downs. But we will fight every minute of every day to make certain we have a government that is as capable, wise, brave and decent as the great people we serve. That is our responsibility and I will not let you down.”

While he used victory speeches in recent weeks as a launching pad to strike his Democratic rivals, McCain focused most of tonight’s address on his vision for the country.

“Nothing is inevitable in America. We are the captains of our fate. We’re not a country that prefers nostalgia to optimism; a country that would rather go back than forward. We’re the world’s leader, and leaders don’t pine for the past and dread the future. We make the future better than the past. We don’t hide from history. We make history,” McCain said. “I understand the responsibilities I incur with this nomination, and I give you my word, I will not evade or slight a single one. Our campaign must be, and will be more than another tired debate of false promises, empty sound-bites, or useless arguments from the past that address not a single American’s concerns for their family’s security.”

Campaign Manager Rick Davis told reporters afterward that he was ecstatic about the victory, noting that they were “smallest campaign in history,” to win the nomination. Though he was also realistic about the prospects McCain faces against the more energized, better financed Democrats, arguing that they face another uphill climb to win in November.

He was also split on whether the prospect of a prolonged Democratic fight was good for McCain. While Davis acknowledged that the campaign would be able to raise more money if they had one rival and the ongoing race keeps them out of the headlines, he added that “if they spend all their money beating each other up, that is pretty good for us.”

McCain heads to Washington Wednesday morning to receive the endorsement of President Bush at the White House and address the Republican National Committee. Davis said the campaign is energized to be “drinking out of the firehose” that the RNC apparatus now provides—including fundraising infrastructure, voter research and polling data as well as a rapid response shop.

Campaign Manager David Plouffe made it clear that March 4th will be key in indicating who the next Democratic nominee for president will be — and the onus is on Hillary Clinton.

“This is the last big window of opportunity for them to erase what is a very, very serious delegate deficit, and we believe that we’re headed to close races in these states,” Plouffe said. The problem for Clinton, he says, is that she must win Texas and Ohio, and win big to erase that delegate deficit.

The Clinton campaign may not be expecting to catch up in terms of pledged delegates, but if they keep momentum alive by winning states (i.e. the popular vote), she would still be viable. Plouffe isn’t buying that argument, stressing this race is, has, and will be about the almighty pledged delegates. “They keep moving the goalposts, but at some point you run out of field and they have to start winning delegates and winning them quickly,” he said.

“The fact of the matter is there is the cold-hearted reality of the math and there’s 370 delegates at stake tomorrow……….if we can come out of Tuesday night’s contests with a pledged delegate lead still in our favor and if we’re able to maintain or even build on it, I think that’s going to be a major event in the nomination swing.”

Obama Campaign Manager, David Plouffe estimates his candidate has a 136 pledged delegate lead after yesterday’s Potomac Primary wins. The Obama campaign has now won 21 contests (including 12 primaries) and, according to the campaign, has a 700,000 vote lead in terms of popular votes cast. “We couldn’t be in a stronger position right now, and the last really five days, we believe, will be looked at back at as a very decisive period in the nomination contest,” he declared. “We think it really put us on the path to the nomination.”

On a conference call with reporters, Plouffe said his candidate has the advantage. “We believe it’s next to impossible for Senator Clinton to close that pledged delegate count. The only way she could do it is winning most of the rest of the contests by 25 - 30 points. And we see not a single contest on the calendar left where we’d expect her to win by those kind of margins.” He later explained that they expect to benefit from a more relaxed primary schedule because “we believe anytime Senator Obama is able to spend time with voters in states, we have profited from that.”

The only way Senator Clinton could overcome this gap, Plouffe said, is if she wins both Texas and Ohio by “blowout” proportions - meaning a 20 point margin or greater as to win a large proportion of the delegates at stake. But Team Obama doesn’t expect that to happen - in fact, they plan on amassing more delegates themselves in both states. “At this point, even the most creative math, really does not get her ever back even in terms of pledged delegates,” Plouffe said, saying it would be “highly unlikely” that their pledged delegate lead will be eroded.

So does this mean victory or will superdelegates decide the Party’s nominee? “We believed all along that the pledged delegate leader will be the Democratic nominee of the party,” Plouffe stated. “I think there’s a growing chorus of concern out there that people do not think that superdelegates should overturn the result of the contests, so we have closed the gap with superdelegates, we’re continuing to try and attract support and we’ll continue to do that. But I think at the end of the day, if we head into June and we’ve won more states, more importantly we have a pledged delegate lead, you know at the end of the day, I think it’s much more likely than not that the superdelegates ratify that outcome,” Plouffe said.

Senator Barack Obama, whatever you call him, is not a frontrunner. So he told the press today. Despite his handy Iowa victory and his high poll numbers here in the Granite State, Obama rejected that title when asked by reporters today if he’d consider himself the frontrunner should he win today’s NH primary. “My name is Barack Obama. I am never a frontrunner. I am always the underdog,” he answered.

But, he assured local news reporters, he is not “nervous” about today’s primary. He downplayed that a New Hampshire victory would propel him to the nomination, pointing out there are still 48 states to go after New Hampshire. His wife, Michelle, who introduced him at a Dartmouth rally this morning was more forthcoming, announcing, “Today we can do something amazing. We can elect my husband. We can push him further down the path to become the party’s nominee.”

Obama was also asked by the press about Bill Clinton’s comment that the Obama campaign is a “fairy tale.” Standing in a Dunkin Donuts store during an “OTR” stop, the candidate responded, “I understand they’re frustrated right now. I suspect that they’ll both try to get back on track in terms of the strategy for them to do better than they feel they’re doing right now.”

He then purchased two dozen donuts and some coffee to distribute to sign-weilding volunteers outside a Manchester area polling place. Obama extended the sustenance not just to his supporters, but to those of his opponents and from that other party, telling them, “The fact that all of you are involved and volunteering like this is really important. It’s what our democracy is about. So I want to give all of you a big round of applause.” The crowd cheered and Obama added, “Obviously I’ve got to especially thank my supporters.”

Obama held one rally this morning on the campus of Dartmouth College. He apologized to the sleepy students for the early start and admitted he wasn’t a “morning person.” He spoke of hope and change and told the students, “This is your moment.” Here are some of his remarks:

done

The Dartmouth event was a little longer than expected when a supporter in the crowd fainted. It took nearly 15 minutes to get her out of the room on a gurney. As the girl was tended to, Senator Obama stood at the edge of the stage, peering silently out at the crowd with obvious concern. He offered his water and assured the crowd that she looked fine and would likely just be embarrassed. Actor and producer Larry David (from Curb Your Enthusiasm and Seinfeld), who was watching the senator from the press area yelled out, “Frank Sinatra used to make them faint like that,” to which Obama responded, “That’s exactly right, Larry.” The student was treated and released from an area hospital.

Obama spent much of the rest of his day with his wife, holed up at his Nashua hotel. The campaign would not provide details on how he’s biding his time before his rally tonight at Nashua’s South High School, but was sure to tell the traveling press about the doings of the Obama for America New Hampshire office. Over the past four days, the campaign knocked on close to 230,000 doors and made some 210,000 phone calls, garnering over 22,000 new supporters.