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Obama’s Odds

People bet on everything these days - including American politics. According to one online trading company, it’s a safe bet that Senator Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination. The Irish company has given the once underdog a 69.8% chance of winning the nomination versus Senator Hillary Clinton’s  30% chance.

An Iowa-based trading company shows similar odds here.  What’s more interesting is this graph showing the candidates’ odds from March of 2007 through today.

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45 Responses to “Obama’s Odds”

Comment by Rigg

Whole lot O’ Obama out there. Personally, I know what all of the Hubbub is about; I am just not buying it. You might like to read more about Obamanizers in my post about Obama titled, “Obama Fruit, Not so Sweet” at:

http://riggword.wordpress.com/

Check it out and let me know what you think.
I’ve been reading your blog for a while now,
thanks for your words and your time.

 
 
Comment by Sherry

This is interesting– Last night on Fox they had a town hall meeting where some folks talked about Hillary and Obama. When the Obama supporters were asked to give a list of Obamas experience all they could say was that he is a Senator, he is black, and he is a good speaker. When asked about Hillarys experience a long list was given. At the end of the town hall meeting most Obama supporters admitted that they had an eye opening experience and they are now in the undecided group. They said they realized that they got so swept up in Obama’s charm and preacher speaker abilities that they didn’t stop to think about the most important factor– Can he run this country with the leadership and experience necessary to get us Americans through this difficult time we are all facing!! And most of them said - NO and then admitted that Hillary does possess the experience necessary and that she does come off as a strong personality able to stand tough for our country, even though her personality was not on their most likeable list.

 
Comment by Bill

Sherry,

Please give us this “long list” of Hillary’s accomplishments. Please dont include being married to someone who held public office. Gets a little thin huh.

 
Comment by PM - GA

Seems to me that the breakdown is clear.
** Black voters clearly chose Race over Loyality and commitment of the Clintons to the African Community, Sad choice, impact remains to be seen.
**Some Young voters are chosing the risk of Unknown Obama over the well known Clinton, not a smart choice, impact remains to be seen.
**Florida and Michigan voters DID NOT GET A CHOICE, impact remains to be seen.
**Smart Democrat leaders need to make a choice on the inexperience Junior Senator or Well known Experience Senior Senator, wrong choice will have an huge impact to all.

What is known Clinton voters will only have two choices, WRITE IN CLINTON for President,conservative democrat on ballot or choose McCain.
It will be the biggest blunder of the DNC in its history if they do not seat Florida, Michigan and the super deligates are not used as intended.

 
Comment by R Byrd

Woodrow Wilson wasn’t paying attention in the 20s, which set the stage for WWII. It took until 1991 to recover from that (fall of Soviet Union).

Islam has been on a mission to destroy “infidels” since the middle ages. Jefferson had to take them on off the Barbary Coast of Africa two hundred years ago.

We quit paying attention to Islam and even after being attacked by Islam 6 and a half years ago, the Democrats want to pretend there’s no serious threat.

Odds are that it would take a century to recover from either Democrat in the White House for two primary reasons: 1) national defense is not a priority for either, 2) both subscribe to the redistribution of wealth versus capitalism

The USA would cease to exist as a Democratic Republic, and would revert to a centrally controlled highly taxed socialist state.

 
Comment by Sherry

Sure Bill—

1. Senator 2000- present
2. First lady 1992-2000
3. Co-founder of advocates for children and families
4.Board member childrens defense fund
5. First lady State of Arkansas 1978-1980 - 1982-1992
6. Passed legislation to track the health status of our military troops
7. Introduced and passed legislation to increase minimum wage
8. Introduced and passed ” The childrens act”.
9. Passed legislation to bring more qualified teachers into the classrooms
10. She is the original sponsor of legislation that expanded health care benefits to members of the National guard and reserves.

This is just a few— Now, its your turn!!!!!!!!!

 
Comment by whydidyoudoit

The Clinton campaign didn’t have a healthcare plan befor it felled and they don’t have one now. Well to be honest, if everyone is a goverment employee, then the Clinton healthcare plan will work for everyone. Unfortunately some are self employed, independent contractors or work for private employors or small business. Under the Clinton healthcare plan these people would be penalized if they don’t pay for their healthcare. This means that most of your family members and friends will have their paychecks garnished. We all know that it doesn’t stop their if it is a goverment enforcement. There will be fines and then misdemeanors which is a criminal offense defined as less serious than a felony. Why did Ms. Clinton decide on this approach? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure this out. Big business, big Corporation call it what you will, they want their money back and in order for Ms. Clinton to get their support in her race to presidency she is giving victory to one side (the healthcare providers) by promising to them that she will have the poeople wages garnished if they continue to give healthcare. Thus allowing her to shout the words “UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE” This is a shady tactic and makes fools out of every american that falls for trick. The Obama healthcare plan is for the people. Poor people, middle class and rich people can rest assured that there is no tricks or penalties in the Obama healthcare plan. VOTE OBAMA!!

 
Comment by Informed

Sherry,

You should look at the record of what Obama has done when he was in office compared to what Hillary did in her longer time in office. Hillary has a record of making decisions that I and most democrats would not believe in, like voting for the war in Iraq for one. I will not vote for her. She is easily manipulated, and her interest are self serving, like Bush’s.
We need a leader who will stand up for what they believe in, doing what the American people believe is right. A president should have strong moral character first and foremost. Both candidates are extremely intelligent, that they would both be capable of making well informed decisions was never the question. The question is would they.
Hillary seems to think we can’t. That we have to follow the status quo. Obama says yes we can, and those are not his words, but the echo of generations of people from around the world. It is the creed life, longevity, and success.
Yes I concede that African Americans seem to be loyal to Barack, but you forgot to mention that Hispanics are loyal to Hillary…. And white men under 60 for Obama. And young people for Obama, and increasing number of white women for Obama. I know you are trying to polarize Obama with race (not very American) but all across the board he has gained massive support.

I could make up a story about a fake town meeting where I had a lot of uneducated black people who had not done political research trying to make a point that voting by black people (like me) are determined by race and not intelligence. I find your comments very telling about how you see people, and how it is determined by race.

I ask you to inform yourself about the candidates and find out why the Kennedy’s compare him to JFK. Look very closely at what he has done in those two years. Look closely. Read his books, follow his life, listen to him speak. Find out that he does not have two years of good experience but forty-six. Now look very closely at what Hillary did, how she voted, why she voted like she voted, where her financing came from, her relationship with Wall mart. I was on the fence for a long time before I started educating myself, and frankly, now both Clinton’s embarrass me.

 
Comment by Sherry

INFORMED… Feel free to post your list of actual and real to life accomplishments for Obama as I did for Hillary. No what he said in his fuzzy charming speeches of what he wants to do. Lets see his actual experience… I will be waiting

 
Comment by Thomas

Man, with the realestate market so slow for the past year I wish I would of taken the same college courses that Obama took in communications and public speaking. He sure is getting his monies worth out of those courses now. Its funny how so many people, educated or not, fall for his inspirational speeches and stand there watching the sugar drip out of his mouth and opening their mouth as if they are the baby bird thats being fed!!
Thank goodness I seen through all that before I voted!!

 
Comment by Gwen S

Southerngirl,
I went to your link and read the entire thing- Obama scares me!!! I don’t want to sound like a loon, but if he is elected, it could set the stage for the Tribulation. Think about it, one world religion, everyone hates Isreal….this is getting rather frightening!

 
Comment by Sylvia

I wish the voters today had that information that Southern girl posted! SOMEONE PLEASE GET THE WORD TO THEM… YIKES THIS IS SCARY!!!!

 
Comment by Bill

Sherry,

Once again you list being married to an officeholder as an accomplishment. It’s not. If that list is what qualifies her to be president we have many who are qualified. I have not decided on a candidate to vote for. Just tired of all this bs about Hillary’s experience. Sh ehas done nothing but ride her husbands coattails.

 
Comment by Nate

You ROCK Sherry!!!! Tell these idiots that Obama is NOT the person to run this country!!! It will only be a matter of time before people realize this character is nothing but talk!!!

You GO Girl!!!!

Hillary for President!!!!!

 
Comment by anthony

Thomas
Not to mention that minorities were given special treatment and financial aid by the schools such as harvard to enroll minority students with lower scores. So in essance my hard working middle class parents taxdollars went to educate minorities like michelle and barak obama. I am not saying there grades were lower just that doors opened for minorities which they happen to be and i was not. I think its reverse discrimination. If barak obama does not embrace his caucasion side why would he embrace me? go john

 
Comment by Scott

Gwen writes…

Southerngirl,
I went to your link and read the entire thing- Obama scares me!!!<<<

Southern Girl rocks. :)

McCain/Southern Girl in 2008!!!!

 
 
Comment by jr perez

YOU go sherry,i can’t belive the number of fools who are supporting obama, i’m from il. and he has done little compared to others in this state but to hear him speak you would think he has world experiance, here’s what i see , he speaks well, gives hope to the hopeless,speaks well,supported by african americans weather qualified or not, been a senator for 2 YEARS. all he talks about is hope and change but can’t tell you how this is going to happen or the cost it will take to the american people who will be paying for his change

 
Comment by Sherry

BILL.. No, those are actual accomplished facts in black and white and in the books,! They have nothing to do with Bill, with the exception of First Lady. However, I am still waiting for your list on Obama. Is there a reason why you have not posted it yet?

 
Comment by katy

The market will correct it self. There are ups and downs all the time. This rebate business is a political ploy. Makes about as much sense as giving debit cards to the people during Katrina. Well they found out how stupid that move was.
you can’t say Hillary Passed any thing. She was only one of 100. So she worked on the Childrens thing for a few months. so what?
I’m looking for a strong Commander in Chief who will build up the military and national defense. Not gut it like Bill did. The enemies are just waiting for another weak wimpy president. Then we will really have something important to worry about and not these fluffy Socialist ideas.
My mom is 97 yr old. Has excellant health care coverage. Medicare and her private. Between the 2 she pays 200 a month. Get out there and buy your own. Buy a Chevy instead of a Mercedes.
Its a matter of priorities. My husband and I pay for our own Ins. too. We didn’t buy a house we couldn’t afford to pay for. Take some responsibility for yourselves and quit looking to gov. to take care of you. Socialism doesn’t work. Take a look at the countries that are. This is still a capitalist country. At least for now.
I have lived thru the War years starting from WW2, on. Theres always a war. And I want all the tools necessary to defend this country. I don’t give a rats ass if we have modern day Surveilense methods. I’m not worried about someone listening to my calls, etc. because I know they wouldn’t bother and I have nothing to hide. Which terror attack that we have stopped would you rather have seen happen?
We have more to worry about with Korea, Iran and China, Russia and the Islamists terrorists.

 
Comment by Laquan

Liberalism is a disease - a mental disorder.

Liberal leaders presume to live in circumstances of conspicuous consumption, while systematically extorting money, property, and personal responsibility from their followers under the premise of “fairly” redistributing said money and property to others. Ironically, the liberal leaders are exempt from their own redistribution of wealth policies.

So the liberal leaders set the rules, but don’t have to abide by them, while at the same time followers are complicit in relinquishing money, property, and individual responsibility to the liberal leaders.

Power is ultimately consolidated and the population is devoid of willingness or resources to extricate themselves from the predicament to which they willingly contributed. To consciously engage in such a behavior as to weaken one’s self beyond the means of sustaining one’s self is not the behavior of a healthy mind.

 
Comment by Roz

Thankyou Sherry! For stating some actual facts. It’s obvious that Bill will remain in denial. Like it or not Bill. Hillary has accomplished way more in her life than you or me and many others. Mitt Romney said it best. “Facts are Stubborn Things” Suck it up and deal with it.

 
Comment by Super Dave

Here’s Hillary’s top ten list;

10) Name David Shuster my Press Secretary.

9) Appoint Monica Lewinsky Secretary of State.

8) Will keep my dog on a tight leash. Sit Bill sit… Good boy.

7) Fire every United States Attorney and replace them with the Rose Law Firm.

6) Appoint Jennifer Flowers Secretary of Foreign Affairs.

5) Give green cards to the first ten million to come out of the shadows.

4) Appoint Sandy Berger Attorney General.

3) Appoint Tony Rezko Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

2) Appoint Emeril Lagasse Treasury Secretary- Because pork fat rules.

1) Apologize once again for a failed Health Care Plan.

 
Comment by Sherry

Super Dave–
Please go find somewhere to go grow up! Might I suggest Kindercare camp? I have connections, I can move you up to the front of the line!!

 
Comment by Super Dave

For war or not for war?

YouTube - Hillary Clinton’s views on going to war, Saddam and WMD-edit

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZcY6TGfAxE - 106k -

 
Comment by Super Dave

Be sure to purchase Hillary’s new book scheduled to be out later this month titled;

Sex-Lies and if only they had Video Tape

 
Comment by Ice cream float

Hey Super Dave~~~ Your mom is calling you, she say’s your ready for a diaper change!!

 
Comment by John

I just read this and everyone else should — I just changed my vote!!!!!
http://www.freedomsenemies.com/_more/obama.htm

 
Comment by Super Dave

Thank you
I’ll be sure to let your mom know

 
Comment by Judge and Jury

I just read that link also from southern girl and I must say it was laid out very fair and factual. I believe everyone should read it. I was a pro Obama supporter but now I feel like I have been lied to and it’s to late to take my vote back. grrrr…

The upcoming states voting have got to read that post and then let’s get this turned around!!

Why isn’t FOX, MSNBC and CNN providing this information? If this was all about Hillary it would of been smeared all over the news weeks ago!! What happened to imformative journalism?

 
Comment by Steve

Hillary preaches that she is going to fight and work hard for the people, yet here in Maryland I have not seen one person from her campaign out in my part of the state nor did I see one flyer nor did she bother to visit my area. She has repeatedly stated that these states mean nothing because I wasn’t favored to do well anyway which is sense discounting all those people in these areas. She claims that the big states are what matters so I ask you… is this the sign of a leader? All she does is throw in the towel and concedes any chance of gaining an advantage rather then fight for voter support. Sounds to me that her motto should be… I am for only the big states forget the little people.

As for Mr. Obama he has made stops all over the state as well as having people out knocking on doors and talking to people and handing out fliers. He even made the effort to visit my area Saturday to talk the people. This is what makes a real leader one who goes to the people regardless of weather he stands a chance of winning or not.

 
Comment by aviator

Senator 2000- present

That was the only political experience that you listed thats is.
Between his time in the ILL senate and congress he has about 10 years Hillary what about 8.

All that other stuff was charity work she didn’t even lead. That means Oprah should be president cause she has done even more than her.

By you account we should all vote for McCain he haaaasss wwwwwwaaayaaaaaayyyyy more experience than both.

List something of substance please experience that applies to the office they are running for. and if she passed bills while being a senator does it count to do your freaking job I am sure obama voted on some bills too.

 
Comment by Steve

Southern Girl;

Maybe you should look more closely to your source of this propaganda you continue to post links to. Maybe what you should tell people is to click on the picture of your source in this link to find out how reliable he really is.

 
Comment by Southern girl

STEVE-
Don’t be a whiner, like Obama, just because you don’t like what he stands for. He made his choices, not me! Unless, you work for the Obama campaign. Ahhh, thats it!!

Join the rest of us and look forward to a great future Hillary Clinton wants us Americans to have!! Until then, go back to the web site I posted earlier and read it better. The whole page is very fair and factual. They dispute rumors and they confirm facts– Open your eyes!!!!!
http://www.freedomsenemies.com/_more/obama.htm

 
Comment by Southern girl

Aviator- Are you confused? McCain has the same beliefs and agenda’s as Bush and look where that got us for the past 7 years!!

 
Comment by Steve

Southern Girl;

Maybe you should look more closely to your source of this propaganda you continue to post links to. Maybe what you should tell people is to click on the picture of your source in this link to find out how reliable he really is.

________________________________________
Derogatorily known as “Pinch”, The New York Times Publisher, Arthur Sulzberger Jr., achieved his lofty position the old fashioned way, he was born into the family that has controlled the Gray Lady since 1896.

Pinch was a long-haired, 1960s radical and an anti-war activist. He had been vehemently opposed to the Vietnam War. He was arrested more than once at protest rallies. He famously declared that in a confrontation between an American and a North Vietnamese soldier he’d want to see the American get shot. His own father, “Punch,” who was then the Times’ publisher, considered his son’s words treasonous.

Sulzberger is part of a generation of reporters who understand their work in a fundamentally different way than reporters before them. For these reporters, the meaningful aspect of their work is the chance that it gives them to “make a difference” in the world. These reporters do not hold as their ideal the relatively modest goal of facilitating public debate. For these reporters, the goal is nothing less than bringing about progressive social change and Pinch has made a deliberate decision to make the Times a vehicle for social change.

In spite of his family’s nepotism, Sulzberger ironically believed that the corporate culture was inbred and in need of more diversity — more women, more minorities and more gays. Upon his ascendancy, Pinch took each of the gay reporters to lunch, asking them what it was like to be gay at the Times. These tête-à-têtes resulted in Sulzberger setting up a pro-gay newsroom at the Times. According to former ombudsman Dan Okrent, the Times had an unofficial but enforced policy of not referring to nor naming any studies that could be critical of gays or gay rights.

In his book, “Coloring the News: How Crusading for Diversity Has Corrupted American Journalism,” William McGowan shows how Sulzberger’s diversity campaign destroyed the Times as a newspaper, if not as a political force, leading to the non-reporting or misreporting of stories big and small.

Sulzberger’s diversity agenda led to the massive journalism fraud perpetrated by Jayson Blair, the Times’ journalist who got caught embellishing, exaggerating, and outright lying in print. Times’ Executive Editor, Howell Raines, defending his paper to the Washington Post, said, “Frankly, no newspaper in the world is set up to monitor for cheats and fabricators.” Raines was fired for his loyalty by Sulzberger.

Under the leadership of Sulzberger, the Times, never lets facts get in the way of its agenda and has become the propaganda arm of al Qaeda and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Recently Sulzberger’s Times has danced around treason, with the release of a top secret National Security Agency (NSA) program, in December 2005. The disclosure of the NSA’s electronic surveillance program was timed to promote the release of Time reporter, James Risen’s book on the government’s secret anti-terrorism operations, “State of War” and to influence the Congressional vote on the extension of the Patriot Act.

This latest escapade is a violation of National Security laws and rules. Senator Mitch McConnell told Fox News Sunday, “We’re already talking about this entirely too much out in public as a result of these leaks and the New York Times continuing to write about it - and it’s endangering our efforts to make Americans more secure.”

Michael Barone observed the Times didn’t bother telling its readers that the electronic surveillance practice is far from new and is entirely legal. Instead, the unspoken subtext of the story was that this was likely an illegal and certainly a very scary invasion of Americans’ rights.

Sulzberger’s Times, the leading cheerleader for the Valerie Plame/Joe Wilson non-story, earnestly wished for the heads of Karl Rove and Vice President Cheney for leaking the name of Plame, a covert CIA operative. It was immaterial to the Times that Plame was neither covert nor an operative and many people in Washington knew that Plame worked as a weapons of mass destruction analyst at the CIA, including Plame’s five year-old son, who told everyone within earshot that, “My daddy’s famous, my mommy’s a secret spy,” while Plame, her lying husband, Joe Wilson and the twins waited to board their plane on the way to their winter vacation.

However, the Times and Sulzberger may now be hoist by their own petard. They screamed so loud and so often for prosecutions in the Plame affair that they now can’t defend themselves in the NSA matter. Sulzberger is oddly quiet about his treasonous actions and has ignored requests from the Times’ Public Editor, Byron Calame to explain his decision to release the NSA story.

Calame called the newspaper’s explanation of its decision to hold for over a year its major scoop on the National Security Agency’s domestic “woefully inadequate.”

He also charged Executive Editor Bill Keller and Sulzberger with “stonewalling” his attempts to get the readers more information, “despite the paper’s repeated pledges of greater transparency.” He wrote that for the first time since he became public editor last year, those two men “have declined to respond to my requests for information about news-related decision-making.”

Calame added that he had e-mailed a list of 28 questions to Keller on December 19th, and got no response. He also sent the same questions to Sulzberger Jr., with the same result.

 
Comment by Michael O

Barack Hussein Obama is an African-American who has not shared the black American experience and was, by birth and blood, a Muslim for at least 27 years. His politics are rooted in Marx and socialism. He is a master at shaping his own mythology and completely unqualified to be Commander in Chief.

 
Comment by King McCain

Me and Rove are going to steal another election this year hehehe. We can’t wait to stick it to you mish mash Democrats again hehehe. Once im in office we’re going to wage war on a global scale hehehe. We will force the rest of the planet to be exactly the same as we are and I don’t give a hoot if they like it or not because only I know what’s best for them!!! I am King McCain and im going to roar my way into the White House !! 8 more years of Bush uhhmm I mean McCain!! I know it’s a hard pill to swallow America but you will have to learn to like me hehehee. I am already in the planning stages with Darth Vader I mean ole’ Rovey boy to build permanent Taco Stands on the grounds of the White House. My goodness!! It’s going to be a fiesta 24/7 when im in the Oval Office ! I can’t wait until all of my illegal alien friend’s join me in ruling America under the Mexican Flag. Im King McCain and I endorse this message hehehehe.

 
Comment by Lynne

HAS ANYONE SEEN THE YOU TUBE VIDEOS OF LARRY SINCLAIR?????
HE FILED A LAWSUIT AGAINST OBAMA YESTERDAY. FEBRUARY 11, 2008. THIS GUY HAS SOME REALLY AWFUL STUFF ON OBAMA. HERE IS A LINK ABOUT THE LAWSUIT
http://caosblog.com/7245
Anyone know anything about this? This is unbelieveable stuff that could really hurt Obama.

 
Comment by Steve Sog,pm

Would like to hear what Hillary has done that Obama has not. Both are US Senators. I think

 
Comment by Louis

I would like to Know what the A merican people think about this gay is a pro comunist.The comunist party support him ,Ortega from Nicarawa is whiht him Chavez is to Castro is to; for other side this gay was studing the Koran for four year,one of his brother from Kenya is an importan gay of the comunist party. He used to sell drug and consumed ,This is the gay you Americans wan for president;think about and put your mind in GOD before you vote.I was living in a comunist country. GOD help you. Thank you.

 
Comment by TUES FEB 19 GO BARACK GO
 
Comment by song bird

There is not any excuse for Obamas Preacher …he preaches posion.. what about this? He said God >>> several times saw him makeing dirty gestures… blameing every white person for some ones bad doing. I love America and I am a Native Indian there are so many good things about this country so good in fact that a black man is running for President and a women who stands for all the women that fought for the right to vote. I am not a Obama fan nor a Clinton . Do you see a cival war breaking out if Obama Loses? This stuff has to stop …a person running for president should have to go through a back ground ck. It is about being a proud American to represent AMERICA. OBAMAS wife made the Statement she has never been proud to be a American What is that? A wife of a husband that is running for President… a first Lady} what a thought and you people are sweeping this under the rug. WAKE UP HEAR WITH YOUR EARS >>>SEE WITH YOUR EYES AND USE GOOD JUDGEMENT YOUR LIFE COULD DEPEND ON IT>> protect our country. Thank you, plese think about what is going on.

 
Comment by Brenda Lamkin

Are you really paying attention to what the MAJORITY OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS REALLY WANT???
That would be….Hilliary Clinton for President!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am fed up with what the press wants and how they favor Obama. The majority of people, you know real people would like Hilliary!

 

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