Giuliani memo questions latest polls
Boca Raton, FL — While recent polling out of Florida makes the GOP primary look increasingly like a two-man battle between John McCain and Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani is arguing that we should not count him out yet.
An internal Giuliani memo suggests that the most recent polls report “conflicting results,” noting that five public polls released in the last 24 hours show McCain leading in two polls, Romney leading in two polls and a three-way tie in the last. It also argues that absentee and early voting may work in the campaign’s advantage since Giuliani has had the state to himself for the last three weeks.
But the memo does not account for the latest Mason-Dixon poll out today, showing Romney at 30%, McCain at 26% and Giuliani at 18%, further proof that despite the memo, the former NYC mayor continues to lose ground in the Sunshine State.
Read the memo below:
A handful of FL public polls released over the past few days are reporting conflicting results. These latest rounds of fluctuating public polls indicate that the race is wide open and public polling is volatile.
There were 5 public polls released over the past 24 hours, claiming different candidates to be leading.
Further complicating matters, 3 of these polls were fielded on the exact same nights (1/20-1/22). Insider Advantage reports Romney leading, St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald reports McCain leading, and Strategic Vision reports a 3 way tie.
McCain is reported to be leading 2 polls, Romney is leading 2 polls, and there is a 3 way tie for first place in one poll.
McCain’s is reported to receive as much as 29% of the ballot share in a poll released today to 18% - an 11 point spread.
Romney is reported to receive as much as 28% of the ballot share in a poll released today to 20% in another - an 8 point spread.
Giuliani is reported receiving as much as 22% of the ballot share in a poll released today to 15% in another - a 7 point spread.
All of these points indicate a wide open race. Additionally, it can be said that because the Mayor’s spread of ballot share in conflicting polls is substantially smaller than his opponents, his support is much more solid and unwavering.
The latest ARG poll reports Mayor Giuliani trailing behind McCain and Romney and essentially tied with Huckabee.
The last ARG poll released right before the SC primary reported Huckabee leading with 33%, followed by McCain 26% and Romney 21%. The poll was fielded 1/17-1/18, completed the day before voting.
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
Conducted 1/20-1/21
McCain: 29
Romney: 22
Huckabee: 17
Giuliani: 16
Crosstabs from the Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion poll show that while Romney holds a small lead currently over Republican primary voters, Mayor Giuliani receives an advantageous amount of support from Hispanic voters - a very important bloc of Republican primary voters in Florida and also heavily concentrated in the southeastern part of the state.
Expected turnout in the southeastern part of the state, where the Hispanic vote is heavily concentrated, is likely to be the second highest turnout region in Florida on Election Day - extremely good news for Mayor Giuliani and his campaign.
Hispanics could make up as much as 70% of the turnout in Miami-Dade County alone - surpassing 100,000 votes. Biases have always existed in polling the Miami-Dade Cuban community - especially among the elderly, Spanish language population and amongst English as a second language Hispanics. These biases could account for an additional 2-5% error rate within that specific community.
INSIDER ADVANTAGE
Conducted 1/20-1/22
1st Ballot Choice - Among all Republican Primary voters
Romney: 24
Giuliani: 19
McCain: 18
Huckabee: 12
1st Ballot Choice - Among Hispanic Primary voters
Giuliani: 32
Romney: 26
McCain: 18
Huckabee: 0
—————————————
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (D)
Conducted 1/22
Romney: 28
McCain: 25
Giuliani: 19
Huckabee: 15
—————————————
ST. PETERSBURG TIMES/MIAMI HERALD
Conducted 1/20-1/22
McCain: 25
Romney: 23
Giuliani: 15
Huckabee: 15
—————————————
STRATEGIC VISION
Conducted 1/20-1/22
McCain: 25
Giuliani: 22
Romney: 20
Huckabee: 18
Being uncontested in the state for so long allowed the Mayor to focus on early and absentee voters almost exclusively. In fact before polls even closed in South Caroling, Palm Beach County had cast more ballots in this primary election (7,324) than had voted early and absentee in the entire 2006 GOP Primary (6,712).
Additionally, the focus on early and absentee voting placed an emphasis on turning out and banking voters who are unlikely primary participants. In fact, as of January 22, 35% of early voters and 31% of absentee voters did not participate in either the 2006 or the 2004 primary elections. Unlikely primary voters will obviously go unaccounted for in these surveys.
Tags: Florida, memo, polls, Rudy Giuliani
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[...] campaign press-release-as-memo takes on the [...]
I find it amusing, someone who is suppose to be the leading republican candidate in foreign policy, saying he visited president Putin of Germany in Germany. How do you mess that up?
John McCain’s two sons serve this country. As a pilot, McCain’s proudly served. He undeniable loves the United States. He respects the rule of law and understands the complexities and dangers facing our world. I, for one, will sleep a lot better at night knowing that President John McCain’s steady hand is at the helm.
Let’s give him a chance. He’s earned it.
This article continues the disgraceful ommission of Congressman Ron Paul. Hence, the article completely contiues Fox News triumph of its manufactured bias. Fox News motto should be “We Feed You What We Want You To Know. You Decide Based on Our Biased Information.” That would be more truthful.
You show repeated poll results with only four candidates’ names. Are you really trying to persuade your readers that there are only four men in the Republican race??? There are five — including top money-raiser, and top enthusiasm-raiser, Dr. Ron Paul.
Dr. Ron Paul — who has whupped Guiliani’s butt in every state so far.
We already know Fox News prefers to ignore Paul because he doesn’t take the standard neocon line on “kill ‘em all let God sort ‘em out” warfare policy. But really, Fox, your bias is going from merely overt to downright shameless.
It doesn’t matter if Dr. Paul is at the bottom of the polls in Florida. He IS in the polls — and in the running for president (or at the very least a power-broker role at the convention). For Fox to decide unilaterally to pretend that Paul simply doesn’t exist is a perfect example of why the mainstream media is increasingly making itself irrelevant.
We don’t need you to be the gatekeeper of our opinions or our votes, Fox.
once again you can reply on fauxnews to give you the unbiased truth.. lol
Rudy Rudy Rudy
ITS OVER HUN.. PACK IT UP..
lol i love it .. media bliss.. awe amerika
Hey Brent S & Emily, I just read 3 other stories in this category on google news, including two by CNN (one by Jack Cafferty), and another by the New York Times that talks about Chuck Norris but not Ron Paul. He just dose not poll high enough to be taken seriously, even though you claim it to be some Fox/right wing conspiracy. You fanatical Paul supporters scare me more then the far leftist kooks on the democratic side, and that’s hard to do!
Hey who’s got the remaining 16%?
The heck with the polls…stick a fork in each of them…they’re done…the next President is either Hillary or Obama…deal with it!!!!
I hope Rudy does pull through- he has the best of both sides!
Haven’t we learned? Reagan was an alzheimer patient his last six years in office. They were conducting the Iranian/Contra trades and he was so far gone he hadn’t a clue as to what was going on. Now you’re thinking about electing a guy who thinks Putin is the leader of Germany. Come on folks, John McCain may be a good man and a good American but that certainly doesn;t make him qualified to run this country. At east without his medication and therapy.
Paul has more delegates and has consistently beat Giuliani by at least a factor of two, so by any objective measure it’s deliberate on behalf of Fox to commission polls that exclude Paul. I’m partial to Romney, Paul, or Thompson (formerly), but we’ve got to call a spade a spade here.
In any case, in Florida only first place matters as delegates are all or nothing.
Presidential Voters Guide, Check out the Facts for yourself…
http://www.afa.net/pdfs/08vg.pdf
McCain Does support Amnesty and although I truly respect the service he has done for our country it does not qualify him to be the next president. At least check out the Facts before you vote, it really is worth the time.
John McCain is the Man!
Honor, always honor.
This is the end of a fairy tale.” Guiliani and the White house” Please that would never happend. I am so glad this tough guy wana be is out. I geus he should not quit his day job yet.lol
What better way to demonstrate the honor of one man or one country than a hundred years of imperialist oppression in Iraq? Let’s hear it for human slaughter for profit! Go McCain!
Domingo’s poll shows Giuliani ahead with 37% and the others trailing with less than 25%. This poll is state wide with results from every county. The public is in for a surprise.
Domingo’s poll shows Giuliani ahead with 37% and the others trailing with less than 25%. This poll is state wide with results from every county. The public is in for a surprise.
McCain is nothing but a Ted Kennedy KissÄss, phony republican. He should give it up and go back home to watch the illegals cut his grass. I cracked up when he said tonight that he has won over the conservative vote. Yeah, sure! Go MITT !!!
I think Giuliani is a Megalomaniac and his temperment makes him unfit to be President. In his personal life, it seems that “little Rudy” made the decisions at the expense of his children, who seem to despise the man. Can you vote for someone whose own kids won’t?
So the New York Times endorses McCain??? Wow, what an endorsement for him! That should really help him with republican voters. I can already see the headlines tomorrow - “New York Times Endorses Senator Amnesty.” Congratulations Mr McCain! Ted Kennedy will be next in line to endorse you.
giuliani will get a huge bump because the new york times endorsed mccain….wow…how liberal can you get PLUS, rudy will pick up points because the new york times wrote a bad article about him…….thats great for a republican …
Mitt Romney is the only scandal free candidate. He is the only one that can win in the general election. We should all unite in the nomination of Mitt Romney and support his election in the fall. He will bring much needed respect back to America from home and abroad. He is new to Washington and not a part of the older crew from the past who have been there far too long.
There’s one common thread in the posts regarding Giuliani (not just here but across the internet.) The people who support him refer to his credentials as a fiscal conservative, social moderate, and as a leader; the people who DON’T support him virtually always use the theme of “fascism.” In addition, these people NEVER say why it is they support another candidate - the ONE THING they’re sure of is that they hate Giuliani.
Isn’t it clear what’s happening here? There are a LOT of bigots out there, and guess what? They can’t get their puny brains around the idea that an Italian-American is running for President. They don’t want to see an American of Italian descent in the White House, so rather than talk about issues, they use all sorts of proxies (i.e., fascism = Mussolini = Italians) to cover up the fact that as long as the candidate has an “i” at the end of his name, they would never vote for him.
The real “race issue” isn’t on the Democratic side - IT’S ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, but nobody wants to talk about the elephant in the room.
Here’s why I support Rudy: 1) he’s a fiscal conservative, a supply-sider with a long history of cutting taxes; 2) at a minimum, he played a key role in turning around New York City (I of course think he played THE key role); 3) he took on the mafia, at risk to his own life, and won; 4) he has a long history of getting his agenda put in place, against the odds; 5) he provided strength and leadership on the worst day in American history (and for those who say “Ah, heck, anybody could’ve done it,” I invite you to compare and contrast NYC and 9/11 and the masterful actions of Mayor Naggin and Governor Blanco in New Orleans); and finally, 6) he understands the nature of the Islamic threat better than anybody (e.g., he threw the terrorist Yasser Arafat out of Lincoln Center.)
I’ve challenged (on various blogs) the bigots who go around calling Rudy a fascist to give me one reason why they support another Republican candidate, and so far, NOT ONE OF THEM HAS DONE SO! Why? Because they’re not in this to “support” anybody; they’re in this to do everything they can to keep the man with the “i” at the end of his name out of the White House.
It’s time somebody called attention to this - it’s also about time someone in the media picked up on this as well.
Peter Oski,
I don’t see see a single post above using the word “fascist”, however according to the dictionary, facism means “totalitarian philosophy of government that glorifies the state and nation and assigns to the state control over every aspect of national life”. I don’t know if that’s a fair assessment of Giuiliani, however most of the issues he is pushing certainly head in that direction as far as increasing the role of government.
For example:
Government competing with the insurance industry creating a trillion dollar catastrophe fund
Wire taps without warrants (i.e. monitor phone, internet, etc. of any US citizen)
Tamper-proof national ID cards
So I don’t know what you mean by fiscal conservative, I can’t think of a single issue in that regard. Pushing for immediate tax cuts without any plan for matching spending cuts is not conservative - it is welfare by making our children and future generations pay for the current generation’s resources.
Leadership? He hires/promotes people based on loyalty, not qualifications (i.e. Bernie). His own children won’t have anything to do with him. To me that indicates a pattern of “my way or the highway” leadership, which is only effective in a police state.
this article is lame.
The writer sites polls to prove Rudy’s demise….
Rudy’s staff points to statistics that could refute the polls.
The writer concludes “but hey we have another poll, so there you go…”
duh… did they read Rudy’s staff statement?
Commenting on the relevance of that would be useful, but the conclusion was plain silly and not really journalism.
Here’s some promising primary research to support Rudy, conducted today by me (not too in depth, lol).
Everyone I know in Florida early voted today. Everyone I know in Florida is voting for Giuliani, a few for Romney. Nobody I know in Florida has ever been polled. Nobody I know in Florida knows anyone who has been polled.
The polls don’t reflect the results we’re going to see on Tuesday.
Go Rudy! Cheer up folks, he’s going to win!
Jason Bradley
http://www.ExcellenceInAmerica.com
McCain’s two sons are serving this country. As a pilot, John McCain proudly served. He undeniably loves the United States. He respects the rule of law and understands the complexities and dangers facing our nation. I, for one, will sleep a lot better at night knowing that President John McCain’s steady hand is at the helm.
Let’s give him a chance. He’s earned it.
Rudi is the best. He’s supported worldwide. We hope you win Rudi… Please !!!!