Penn on the Polls
Clinton pollster and chief strategist Mark Penn points out that the three national polls out this weekend have Hillary in the lead — and two of them show her with a double digit advantage over Barack Obama. And while her lead has narrowed to 5 points in the third poll, her favorability, experience, and change-bringing numbers have all improved.
While national polls are a little more important now that Iowa and New Hampshire are out of the way and there’s a quasi-national primary on February 5, what happens in Nevada and South Carolina could turn these numbers upside down before Super Tuesday next month.
Read Penn’s full memo after the jump.
To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
Date: Monday, January 14, 2008
Re: Three New Polls Show Hillary Leading
Three new national polls were released this weekend. All three show Hillary leading Barack Obama in the Democratic primary. Two of these polls show her lead remaining relatively steady (up three points in one, down two points in another), while one of the three polls shows Hillary’s lead narrowing significantly.
The first poll released was the CNN poll. It showed Hillary leading Obama by 13 points, up from a 10 point lead in December. The same poll also showed Hillary leading John McCain with 50 percent of the vote — more than Barack Obama, and leading all other Republican contenders (Giuliani, Romney, and Huckabee) with 55-58 percent of the vote.
The second poll was the CBS/New York Times poll. It showed Hillary leading by 15 points, about the same as her 17 point lead in December.
Finally, the third poll released was the ABC/Washington Post poll. It shows Hillary’s lead narrowing to just 5 points. The same poll also shows Hillary’s favorability increasing and her unfavorability decreasing — to 58 percent favorable and only 40 percent unfavorable. And it shows Hillary leading on strong leadership, electability, experience, understanding problems of people like you, Iraq, terrorism, health care, and the economy (which has now replaced Iraq as the most important issue facing the country), and tied with Barack Obama on change. And while only 53 percent of Democrats say Barack Obama has the experience to be president (Hillary leads Obama 71 percent to 11 percent on experience), a whopping 75 percent say Hillary Clinton would bring change to Washington.
So three out of three pollsters agree: Hillary leads Obama. And two out of three agree that Hillary’s lead is between 13 and 15 points — about the same as December.
As I said two days ago, there will be a variety of polls in the race even when taken at the same time because polls tend to revolve around a mean and the Democratic side of these polls is usually 400 to 500 interviews and include a lot of independents in them.
The interesting thing will be to watch the coverage — with two of three respected national polls showing no change — we’ll see how this is all reported.
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Tags: hillary clinton, polls
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as a Hillary supporter, I am pleased with these polls results. but let’s not be complacent as we all know after the New Hampshire polls debacle that these are sometimes misleading or not reliable at all. let’s continue to attack the issues and pull as many Democrats who share Hillary’s core values and have confidence in her leadership into the process.
Rose La hit the nail smack on the head. MLK started his civil rights change long befroe (even in that time) , is was popular to support or give attention this movement. H. Clintion owes America an apology just as much as John Johnson owes Obama an aplogy. I’m an African-American and I stopped watching BET, stopped reading JET and EBONY magazines many years ago, how about that for change.
And here is something to think about. Years ago we had Bush 1 and even his presidency was not all that great. After Clinton 1, we had Bush 2. Who will go down as one of the worst presidents we have ever had. Remember this, just because Clinton 1 had a good presidency, doesn’t mean that if elected, Clinton 2 will be a great president. Just remember the Bush’s presidencies.
Hillary will not get my vote.
I truly believe that most Americans would identify with the role of government and economic policies that republican ideology have to offer. The problem inherent in the republican party has a perception of the rich versus the poor. Also, the moral religious views versus those who believe that religion is oppressive. There is just not enough room for my thoughts regarding this issue but I would like to summarize how the two parties seek to split the nations vote. If you were to remove everything that is bad about the two parties, you would be left with socialism on the left, which most people disagree with, and privatization and economic stimulus on the right. Which would America choose? By in large I believe that Americans pride themselves on productivity and individual accomplishment. Government aid and entitlement is not what individuals want. Choice and freedom where it does not adversely impact others would be what most people would stand for. But then why is their not a party that represents these principles that are contained in the constitution and represents our national identity. Racism, religious persecution, hate are all issues that still divide not only the political climate but our nation as well. Washington is just a representation of what we as a melting pot do on a daily basis. If a person were to unite the country they could not do so under a republican or democratic flag. Instead they should run under another party, maybe one that is unnamed, voting for an individual with an Ideal not an Ideal represented by an individual. Ideas take on a life of their own and they no more want to be destroyed once there purpose is fulfilled than any other individual wants to die. However, serving two terms in office serves a way to prevent the same person from becoming a dictator, however the American people do not realize that while the person is no longer in charge, they only served to represent a larger organization. These organizations have a monarchy on the country and they both stay in power indefinitely. We in a sense are still at the mercy of a dictator, only we have the power to transition between the two dictators in power, but they are always present. This system is dangerous to our countries survival, and when Americans speak of change they are really talking about the system itself. But how do you break free from these forces when they have such a strong hold in our “democracy.” The media, unions, all those intermediaries only discredit anyone who has a chance to capture the heart of America. When will the people pick a candidate that will represent the heart of America? In terms that people can understand I am talking about the moderates, the fence sitters, the people that have been so turned off by politics that voting has become another form of repression. My intent and message is not to be negative or bleak but is intended to speak about real change. Know that any person who does not conform to the two party system will be torn apart politically. Americans want to be represented, and only 30% are any given year. This is not fuzzy math, one person wins of a party, 30% wanted the guy/girl, and the rest wanted someone else. Its time that moderates take hold of the country, that way Americans will be represented every year. They should hold their own primaries, the primaries shall receive equal coverage from the news media. These candidates will vote on one individual and he shall receive equal opportunity to succeed in the general election. I believe people will respond to a viable third party candidate, and if so, the two party system that has dominated will crumble. Most of us think that this will never happen, but I submit to you, that the survival of this country rests on exactly that. As things get worse we need independent thinkers that can inspire real change. Our country has been hijacked and it is up to all of us to think outside the box. A peaceful resolution exists within the confines of our nations constitution. All we have to do is act. Remember, freedom is a right given to us by god, not government.
I’m really not sure what Clinton owes an apology for.
Obama supporters appear to me to be a little touchy. I just don’t understand what’s the least bit racist about saying that MLKJr delivered the inspiration, but LBJ delivered the legislation.
All that is is simply the Truth.
If that’s racism, Obama seriously has no idea what the Rightwing Slime Machine is getting ready to throw at him. And if this is Obama’s idea of bringing us together…! Eh, not so much.
Kyle, for those of us who don’t believe in God, freedom is a gift we give ourselves. In America, we give it to ourselves via free and fair elections. And, btw, freedom actually IS free. It’s war that’s not free.
Also, Kyle, America gave the reins of our entire government over to Bush Republicans in 2000 and Bush Republicans gave us back unending debt, unending war, larger government, incompetent government, and unaccountable government.
When Clinton left office, 70% of America thought we were going in the right direction.
Under Bush Republicans, 70% of America thinks we are going in the WRONG direction.
So, no, Kyle, the FACT is, most Americans do NOT identify with Republicans.
Listening to CNN they claim that this is a tactic to bring Obama out on the race carpet. If he does not come then they will accuse him of being white and not caring about the black population. The way the Clintons are doing this is questionable. To the Black population Martin Luther King paid the price to get them a step closer to freedom. LBJ did not care one bit about the Black Population until he saw 1.000.000 Blacks standing on his front lawn. When Rap Brown stood up and yelled “Burn Baby Burn”, a lot of the white leaders suddenly had a sense of the meaning of the constitution.
Hillary has believed everything Bill has told her and one is how to play the Black population. Keep the Black voter in fear and then you can control them. Hillary has two advantages one she can play the gender card and she can force the race card. That is what she is doing. Hillary through Bill has a tight structure to assure themselves a victory. They have to a large extend paid off the internal members of the DNC at a national and local level. They have given consulting jobs to the black pastors to tout Hillary. They just have not calculated that the Americans will really stand up and vote. I believe this will get to be a very ugly period up until super Tuesday.
Keep in mind that Hillary has run defense as Bill was out there molesting and raping women. She lied to the entire nation and expected that Bill with his lie would pull it off. She has a mission and she is not afraid of pulling the carpet out from under democracy. She when she reaches her goal will be dangerous to everyone in her vicinity. Any one who is looking for a Clinton/Obama ticket is just playing with themselves. Who ever is Vice President will suffer with Bill.
I held a very favorable opinion of John Edwards until he attacked Hillary on the MLK/Johnson remarks. Hillary was not suggesting in any way that a “Washington politician” was totally responsible for the civil rights acts. Her comments referred to the differences between the MLK wannabe, Obama, and the actual person who brought about the changes. We all agree that the wonderful Martin Luther King was the catalyst for this change. Obama does not become an MLk by trying to cadence his speech after that great man, or steal sentences/comments from the Kennedys. Hillary is the person to bring about real change in Washington.
Four more years of hearing about Clinton shady investment deals and law firms, Clinton impeachment, Clinton sex scandals, and Clinton lies? Save the 22nd Amendment (prohibiting a third term for this husband-and-wife team) and vote ANYONE else in the Democratic primary!